Ben Stein, on the money - ours as well as his:
"QBen Bernanke took the helm as Fed chairman Tuesday and raised interest rates a quarter of a point. How do you think he'll fare as fed chief and what kind of actions do you think he'll take in the coming year?
A Any time there's inflation, raise interest rates aggressively until the demon goes back into his cage. I think he will succeed. But we have such a strong economy and such a labor shortage that it may take more increases than people are predicting.
QWhat are your economic predictions for 2006?
AI think the housing market will continue to decline. We're coming off the biggest housing boom in 15 years. I think we're way overbuilt and overpriced. Everything is ripe for a fall. There's already been a substantial decline in many parts of the country and a dramatic rise in inventory, including in South Florida.
QWill it be like a bubble bursting? Or a slow deflation?
AThe signs are there for a prolonged slowdown. Whether they'll be a bursting like in the early 1990s, that's hard to say. That was interest rates accompanied by a severe recession. This time around I don't see recession in the cards. The fact is, there will be a correction; at this point you can't avoid it."
Friday, March 31, 2006
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
Sold over asking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! < --- > 03/30 22:35:59
These have closed recently in San Francisco...
17.12% over asking - 42 Cole, sold for $725,000
12.82% over asking - 747 Lyon, sold for $2,200,000
17.66% over asking - 307-309A Duncan, sold for $1,706,000
0.67% over asking - 2577-2579 Pose, sold for $1,500,000
4.22% over asking - 1839 Laguna, sold for $3,335,000
11.63% over asking - 29-31 Hattie, sold for $1,200,000
1.00% over asking - 1730 Broderick, #11, sold for $403,000
4.07% over asking - 4216 Balboa, sold for $1,560,000
11.01% over asking - 627-631 Lyon, sold for $1,886,000
5.21% over asking - 1039-1041 Cabrillo, sold for $1,050,000
21.29% over asking - 1378 Hayes, sold for $940,000
8.46% over asking - 1770 Fell, #4, sold for $910,000
5.81% over asking - 1980 Sutter, #317, sold for $820,000
10.76% over asking - 1730 Fell, sold for $885,000
22.39% over asking - 1073-1075 14th St, sold for $1,585,000
6.24% over asking - 1548 Leavenworth, sold for $1,328,000
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
Wow, 1730 #11 Broderick for 403K!?! < TheEconomist > 03/30 23:06:24
Exact same size condo, on a lower floor (#3) sold for 511K almost a year ago. That's down 20% for a lower floor. The very same condo sold for 325K in 2003. If they did a kitchen and bath remodel, that shot all of their "gain". They would have been better off renting, because they paid more to own. The realtor commission was probably $20K, so even if they did nothing at all to the place, they made a whopping $58K, minus their closing costs (points on the loan, etc.). The property tax and homeowners fee they paid was probably half of the 58K and the closing costs probably 1 quarter of what was left.
I hope everyone gets my point here. % over asking is meaningless because the asking price is pulled out of the air. The only meaningful statistic is the % UNDER the prior comps. The trend is distubingly down. #3 sold for more money last year. #11 really made nothing at all.
http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.z?addrstrthood=1730%20Broderick%20St&citystatezip=San%20Francisco%2C%20CA%2094115&mode=units
I suspect a similar analysis on the other ones will yield similar results: the trend is down and most of the talk of real estate being some sort of cash machine is largely just realtors pumping up the possibilities. Most of the time that I do an analysis like this, I find the homeowner didn't make much at all, and the comps were higher last year.
In the end: the realtor and mortgage banker made more money than the homeowner, and someone who bought last year is underwater already.
http://forums.craigslist.org/?ID=410545
Sold over asking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! < --- > 03/30 22:35:59
These have closed recently in San Francisco...
17.12% over asking - 42 Cole, sold for $725,000
12.82% over asking - 747 Lyon, sold for $2,200,000
17.66% over asking - 307-309A Duncan, sold for $1,706,000
0.67% over asking - 2577-2579 Pose, sold for $1,500,000
4.22% over asking - 1839 Laguna, sold for $3,335,000
11.63% over asking - 29-31 Hattie, sold for $1,200,000
1.00% over asking - 1730 Broderick, #11, sold for $403,000
4.07% over asking - 4216 Balboa, sold for $1,560,000
11.01% over asking - 627-631 Lyon, sold for $1,886,000
5.21% over asking - 1039-1041 Cabrillo, sold for $1,050,000
21.29% over asking - 1378 Hayes, sold for $940,000
8.46% over asking - 1770 Fell, #4, sold for $910,000
5.81% over asking - 1980 Sutter, #317, sold for $820,000
10.76% over asking - 1730 Fell, sold for $885,000
22.39% over asking - 1073-1075 14th St, sold for $1,585,000
6.24% over asking - 1548 Leavenworth, sold for $1,328,000
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
Wow, 1730 #11 Broderick for 403K!?! < TheEconomist > 03/30 23:06:24
Exact same size condo, on a lower floor (#3) sold for 511K almost a year ago. That's down 20% for a lower floor. The very same condo sold for 325K in 2003. If they did a kitchen and bath remodel, that shot all of their "gain". They would have been better off renting, because they paid more to own. The realtor commission was probably $20K, so even if they did nothing at all to the place, they made a whopping $58K, minus their closing costs (points on the loan, etc.). The property tax and homeowners fee they paid was probably half of the 58K and the closing costs probably 1 quarter of what was left.
I hope everyone gets my point here. % over asking is meaningless because the asking price is pulled out of the air. The only meaningful statistic is the % UNDER the prior comps. The trend is distubingly down. #3 sold for more money last year. #11 really made nothing at all.
http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.z?addrstrthood=1730%20Broderick%20St&citystatezip=San%20Francisco%2C%20CA%2094115&mode=units
I suspect a similar analysis on the other ones will yield similar results: the trend is down and most of the talk of real estate being some sort of cash machine is largely just realtors pumping up the possibilities. Most of the time that I do an analysis like this, I find the homeowner didn't make much at all, and the comps were higher last year.
In the end: the realtor and mortgage banker made more money than the homeowner, and someone who bought last year is underwater already.
http://forums.craigslist.org/?ID=410545
Friday, March 24, 2006
Monday, March 06, 2006
patrick.net » Blog Archive » Favorite Realt-whore Cliches
patrick.net » Blog Archive » Favorite Realt-whore Cliches: "spazzer Says:
March 5th, 2006 at 5:44 pm
I love this one… GO GO GO!
Here’s a house that I used to drive by on my way home from work occasionally:
http://www.ehomes-usa.com/homes1/asp/listing2_om.asp?KEY=40103418&realtor=dwelzien&link=
Check out the status: SOLD!
Here’s some crappy cellphone pix I took on 9/27/05:
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores.jpg
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores2.jpg
Long story short, saw a price reduction to $649k then off the market, until I saw this last week:
http://tinyurl.com/s5rgs
Interesting, I thought it was sold!"
March 5th, 2006 at 5:44 pm
I love this one… GO GO GO!
Here’s a house that I used to drive by on my way home from work occasionally:
http://www.ehomes-usa.com/homes1/asp/listing2_om.asp?KEY=40103418&realtor=dwelzien&link=
Check out the status: SOLD!
Here’s some crappy cellphone pix I took on 9/27/05:
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores.jpg
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores2.jpg
Long story short, saw a price reduction to $649k then off the market, until I saw this last week:
http://tinyurl.com/s5rgs
Interesting, I thought it was sold!"
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