Treasuries, Oil Surge May Foreshadow Bond Bear Market (Update1)
Yields on 10-year notes fell as low as 3.79 percent last week, within a third of a percentage point of the consumer price index. Every time inflation has exceeded what investors get paid to own Treasuries, bonds have plunged. That happened from August 1973 through August 1975, when Ford addressed the nation with his ``Whip Inflation Now'' speech, and from January 1979 to October 1980, the end of Jimmy Carter's term.
"The yield on the benchmark 4 1/4 percent note maturing in November 2017 was little changed today at 3.94 percent,"
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Friday, November 16, 2007
Catching Knife in Sacramento Housing
Here's the potential loss you need to prepare for in order to speculate on Sacramento housing:
**GREAT CHANCE TO OWN A SPACIOUSE DREAM HOME**:
"$749900 **GREAT CHANCE TO OWN A SPACIOUSE DREAM HOME** Reply to: ryanschattner@gmail.com Date: 2007-11-15, 8:46AM PST Here is your chance. Large single story ideal for day to day living or elegant entertaining. Priv. bath for every bedroom. Spacious wet bar with wine cab. that looks into a large living area next to the kitchen. Large yard with plenty of room for pool. Motor court gives access to split 2car gr. *Bank Owned*
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=63421325
Sold 07/11/2007: $855,000
That means a loss of $100K+ in just 4 months. Assuming a down payment of $170K (I doubt it but just use it for the bottomline), that's 60% loss.
**GREAT CHANCE TO OWN A SPACIOUSE DREAM HOME**:
"$749900 **GREAT CHANCE TO OWN A SPACIOUSE DREAM HOME** Reply to: ryanschattner@gmail.com Date: 2007-11-15, 8:46AM PST Here is your chance. Large single story ideal for day to day living or elegant entertaining. Priv. bath for every bedroom. Spacious wet bar with wine cab. that looks into a large living area next to the kitchen. Large yard with plenty of room for pool. Motor court gives access to split 2car gr. *Bank Owned*
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=63421325
Sold 07/11/2007: $855,000
That means a loss of $100K+ in just 4 months. Assuming a down payment of $170K (I doubt it but just use it for the bottomline), that's 60% loss.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007 | The American Prospect
The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007 | The American Prospect:
"The most basic and alarming parallel is the creation of asset bubbles, in which the purveyors of securities use very high leverage; the securities are sold to the public or to specialized funds with underlying collateral of uncertain value; and financial middlemen extract exorbitant returns at the expense of the real economy. This was the essence of the abuse of public utilities stock pyramids in the 1920s, where multi-layered holding companies allowed securities to be watered down, to the point where the real collateral was worth just a few cents on the dollar, and returns were diverted from operating companies and ratepayers. This only became exposed when the bubble burst. As Warren Buffett famously put it, you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out."
"The most basic and alarming parallel is the creation of asset bubbles, in which the purveyors of securities use very high leverage; the securities are sold to the public or to specialized funds with underlying collateral of uncertain value; and financial middlemen extract exorbitant returns at the expense of the real economy. This was the essence of the abuse of public utilities stock pyramids in the 1920s, where multi-layered holding companies allowed securities to be watered down, to the point where the real collateral was worth just a few cents on the dollar, and returns were diverted from operating companies and ratepayers. This only became exposed when the bubble burst. As Warren Buffett famously put it, you never know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out."
Another FB Seeking Next Fool
Remember I told you that I like to sometimes cross-search on people looking for others to take over their money-sucking auto leases.
Here's another one. Suzy wants rent her Sacramento house (do I hear up-side down?) and at the same time trying to find someone to take over the $1350 per month payment on her 2007 HSE Range Rover.
Sorry but I really have a hard time containing my schadenfreude.
Location, Location, Location.....:
"$2400 / 5br - Location, Location, Location..... Reply to: suzyfrank0307@yahoo.com Date: 2007-10-01, 3:19PM PDT STUNNING LAKE COMMUNITY RENTAL!!!!!!! This beautifully decorated and spacious home features granite countertops and hard wood flooring throughout. It too has an enclosed office with french doors to include a large custom built 2 person desk with lots of cabinets and drawers for storage. This home has 4 (possibly 5) bedrooms/3 full baths, 3 car tandem garage + a huge bonus room that can be an additional master size bedroom or a playroom. This 3 year old home has a 26 jet hot tub, fully landscaped back yard with large trees for privacy, on the green belt, partial lake views, a dog run and is in a very quiet and family friendly neighborhood. Best of all...it is only 15 minutes from Downtown Sacramento, 20 minutes from Davis and 6 minutes to the nearest grocery store. ******Serious candidates only please!***** Lease to buy options are welcomed! Contact Suzy: (916) 214-4632"
2007 HSE Range Rover: "This gorgeous white HSE has only 7,300 miles. Has every ammenity imaginable to include Lo-Jack, dual tv's on the back of driver and passenger seats, 6 disc player, etc. All maintenance is included as well. I am looking for someone to take over the lease. I will forfit my deposit. The monthly payment is $1350 + tax. ******************Serious Applicants only PLEASE!************ Call Suzy (916) 214-4632; suzyfrank0307@yahoo.com"
Here's another one. Suzy wants rent her Sacramento house (do I hear up-side down?) and at the same time trying to find someone to take over the $1350 per month payment on her 2007 HSE Range Rover.
Sorry but I really have a hard time containing my schadenfreude.
Location, Location, Location.....:
"$2400 / 5br - Location, Location, Location..... Reply to: suzyfrank0307@yahoo.com Date: 2007-10-01, 3:19PM PDT STUNNING LAKE COMMUNITY RENTAL!!!!!!! This beautifully decorated and spacious home features granite countertops and hard wood flooring throughout. It too has an enclosed office with french doors to include a large custom built 2 person desk with lots of cabinets and drawers for storage. This home has 4 (possibly 5) bedrooms/3 full baths, 3 car tandem garage + a huge bonus room that can be an additional master size bedroom or a playroom. This 3 year old home has a 26 jet hot tub, fully landscaped back yard with large trees for privacy, on the green belt, partial lake views, a dog run and is in a very quiet and family friendly neighborhood. Best of all...it is only 15 minutes from Downtown Sacramento, 20 minutes from Davis and 6 minutes to the nearest grocery store. ******Serious candidates only please!***** Lease to buy options are welcomed! Contact Suzy: (916) 214-4632"
2007 HSE Range Rover: "This gorgeous white HSE has only 7,300 miles. Has every ammenity imaginable to include Lo-Jack, dual tv's on the back of driver and passenger seats, 6 disc player, etc. All maintenance is included as well. I am looking for someone to take over the lease. I will forfit my deposit. The monthly payment is $1350 + tax. ******************Serious Applicants only PLEASE!************ Call Suzy (916) 214-4632; suzyfrank0307@yahoo.com"
Thursday, September 06, 2007
The Modesto Bee | Housing prices continue to plummet
The Modesto Bee | Housing prices continue to plummet:
"# Stanislaus County homes sold for a median price of $324,500 in July, down $48,750 from last year and down $18,750 from June.
# San Joaquin County homes sold for a median $380,000 in July, down $60,000 from last year and down $16,000 from June.
# Merced County homes sold for a median $316,000 in July, down $53,000 from last year but up $26,000 from June."
"# Stanislaus County homes sold for a median price of $324,500 in July, down $48,750 from last year and down $18,750 from June.
# San Joaquin County homes sold for a median $380,000 in July, down $60,000 from last year and down $16,000 from June.
# Merced County homes sold for a median $316,000 in July, down $53,000 from last year but up $26,000 from June."
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Short Sale in San Jose Downtown
Found on Craigslist. Asking for $585K. Bought for $640,000 on 03/15/2006.390 Meridian Ave, San Jose, CA 95126 3 beds, 2.5 baths, 1,696 sq ft
$585000 OPEN HOUSE - APPROVED SHORT SALE (san jose downtown)
OPEN HOUSE: Saturday June 16,2007 1-4 p.m.
This great end unit 2level Townhouse is priced 10k under market value. The lender has approved the short sale and is ready to move forward. $2300 Credit for Closing Cost.
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
FBs in Modesto
1198 Crescent Dr, Merced, CA 95348 3 beds, 2.5 baths
Loss: $122K (28%)
1157 Kay Cir, Turlock, CA 95382 4 beds, 3.0 baths, -- sq ft
Short-sale asking for $342,500
03/14/2006: $490,000
Loss:$148K(30%)
| 05/16/2007: | $313,000 |
|---|---|
| 06/28/2006: | $435,000 |
1157 Kay Cir, Turlock, CA 95382 4 beds, 3.0 baths, -- sq ft
Short-sale asking for $342,500
03/14/2006: $490,000
Loss:$148K(30%)
Short Sale in Milpitas
This short-sale is still for sale after 35 days. The specuvestor has lost close to $90K (13%) over 10 months. Nice!!Price: $589,950
215 PARC PLACE DR
Milpitas, CA 95035
Beds: 3 On Redfin: 35 days
Baths: 3 Year Built: 2006
sqft: 1,280 Lot Size: -
$/Sqft: $461 MLS#: 724739
Status: Active on market
Last Sale: $679,500 (08/31/2006)
Monday, June 11, 2007
Townhomes a steal in Fort Myers
Townhomes a steal in Fort Myers | WINK-TV - Fort Myers, FL | Local & Florida:
"Fort Myers - You're not going to believe what some brand new townhomes went for on the auction block Thursday night in Fort Myers, considering where prices have been. A three bedroom townhome previously priced at $310,000 sold for about $180,000! First time home buyer Brandon Quarterman, a student at Florida Gulf Coast University, was the lucky bidder. He said, 'I'm feeling great. more money in my pocket!'"
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Union City
It is getting more encouraging each day as I see more reduced listings on CL. It used to be more on the outskirt of BA but is slowly changing. This is one in Union City asking for $830,000. Decent 8 year old 2,300 sq ft home. 34225 ASPEN LOOP
UNION CITY, CA 94587
Open Sat/Sun 1-4 5 Bedroom PRICE REDUCED Great Location
Yep. You guessed it right. It was purchased on 06/14/2005 for $898,000. So in 2 years, this one has lost $68K.
Friday, June 08, 2007
Stockton is Crashing Hard
Found this short sale property on CL:
10437 Tank House Dr, Stockton, CA 95209 5 beds, 3.0 baths, 3,201 sq ft
Asking Price: $540K
"SELLERS ARE HIGHLY MOTIVATED!!!10437 Tank House Ct., Stockton, CA Great opportunity! 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, 3 car garage, cherry wood floors, plush carpets, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, jack & jill shower and jacuzzi tub in master suite, tile in bathrooms, landscaped backyard with water fountains,community pool, all in a gated community. Close to golf course and more!!"
Wanting to know how much the owner might have paid to end up in short sale, I went on Zillow.com and found this other home right next door with the same square footage.
10837 Tank House Dr, Stockton, CA 95209 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,160 sq ft
10437 Tank House Dr, Stockton, CA 95209 5 beds, 3.0 baths, 3,201 sq ft
Asking Price: $540K
"SELLERS ARE HIGHLY MOTIVATED!!!10437 Tank House Ct., Stockton, CA Great opportunity! 5 bedrooms, 3.5 baths, 3 car garage, cherry wood floors, plush carpets, custom paint, vaulted ceilings, jack & jill shower and jacuzzi tub in master suite, tile in bathrooms, landscaped backyard with water fountains,community pool, all in a gated community. Close to golf course and more!!"
Wanting to know how much the owner might have paid to end up in short sale, I went on Zillow.com and found this other home right next door with the same square footage.
10837 Tank House Dr, Stockton, CA 95209 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 3,160 sq ft
was sold on 09/20/2006 for $750,000. So for less than 9 months, it probably has lost $210K or roughly 30%. A-ha!!
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Bad Weather Coming Home?
More flips in San Jose that show significant losses from 2006 and 2005
380 VALLEY VIEW AVE San Jose, CA 95127
| Beds: | 4 | On Redfin: | 35 days |
| Baths: | 2.5 | Year Built: | 1980 |
| sqft: | 1,981 | Lot Size | 22,651 |
| $/Sqft: | $429 | MLS#: | 721510 |
| Status: | Subject to inspection | ||
| Last Sale: | $1,050,000 (04/20/2006) | ||
| Beds: | 3 | On Redfin: | 81 days |
| Baths: | 2 | Year Built: | 1920 |
| sqft: | 1,738 | Lot Size: | 6,098 |
| $/Sqft: | $345 | MLS#: | 712021 |
| Status: | Active on market | ||
| Last Sale: | $750,000 (09/26/2005) | ||
| Beds: | 3 | On Redfin: | 51 days |
| Baths: | 2 | Year Built: | 1920 |
| sqft: | 1,532 | Lot Size: | - |
| $/Sqft: | $385 | MLS#: | 718401 |
| Status: | Active on market | ||
| Last Sale: | $656,000 (06/27/2006) | ||
| Beds: | 2 | On Redfin: | 29 days |
| Baths: | 1.5 | Year Built: | 1908 |
| sqft: | 864 | Lot Size: | 4,658 |
| $/Sqft: | $681 | MLS#: | 723161 |
| Status: | Subject to inspection | ||
| Last Sale: | $730,000 (08/26/2005) | ||
Friday, May 25, 2007
Flip in Mountain View Gone Bad
Having heard some many people said Mountain View is prime because lots of Googlers want to have homes nearby, it is quite refreshing to find an example to show that the market is not going up, NOT even in Mountain View.
Redfin - Find San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate:
"Price: $1,525,000
Redfin Savings: $30,500
1 of 6
1178 BONITA AVE
Mountain View, CA 94040
Beds: 4 On Redfin: 43 days
Baths: 3 Year Built: 2007
sqft: 2,000 Lot Size: -
$/Sqft: $763 MLS#: 718771
Status: Active on market
Last Sale: $1,625,000 (12/21/2005)"
Redfin - Find San Francisco Bay Area Real Estate:
"Price: $1,525,000Redfin Savings: $30,500
1 of 6
1178 BONITA AVE
Mountain View, CA 94040
Beds: 4 On Redfin: 43 days
Baths: 3 Year Built: 2007
sqft: 2,000 Lot Size: -
$/Sqft: $763 MLS#: 718771
Status: Active on market
Last Sale: $1,625,000 (12/21/2005)"
How much is it EXACTLY????
Another example why one has to be extra cautious in buying things from Craigslist, regardless if it is a microwave oven or a house.
Just look at this listing on CL asking for $729K
3bd/1bth -Updated throughout, in a great Cul-de-Sac location...REDUCED
It is $599K on redfin.com
Also, according to zillow.com it was bought with $600K on 12/28/2006. Not good for the flipper.
Just look at this listing on CL asking for $729K
3bd/1bth -Updated throughout, in a great Cul-de-Sac location...REDUCED
It is $599K on redfin.com
Also, according to zillow.com it was bought with $600K on 12/28/2006. Not good for the flipper.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
No Housing Bubble Posts
Why there is no housing bubble - Jubak's Journal - MSN Money:
"The sky is not falling. Yes, home prices are sky-high, but we really don't have a housing bubble that is anywhere near bursting. Here's why."
Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust:
"Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve."
Bubble won't burst / Study finds Bay Area housing prices in line with economic growth:
"The recent, rapid price increases stem not from a speculative frenzy but from basic economic factors, including low interest rates, strong income growth and abnormally low prices in the mid-1990s, said researchers at Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
'The bubble fears are over people paying money for housing today because they're expecting unreasonable (price increases),' said Todd Sinai, associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School. 'Our calculation says that if people are expecting something reasonable, house prices today are justified -- and they are in San Francisco.'"
"The sky is not falling. Yes, home prices are sky-high, but we really don't have a housing bubble that is anywhere near bursting. Here's why."
Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust:
"Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve."
Bubble won't burst / Study finds Bay Area housing prices in line with economic growth:
"The recent, rapid price increases stem not from a speculative frenzy but from basic economic factors, including low interest rates, strong income growth and abnormally low prices in the mid-1990s, said researchers at Columbia University and the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
'The bubble fears are over people paying money for housing today because they're expecting unreasonable (price increases),' said Todd Sinai, associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School. 'Our calculation says that if people are expecting something reasonable, house prices today are justified -- and they are in San Francisco.'"
2 bath Single story, completely remodeled house
2 bath Single story, completely remodeled house:
"Completely remodeled for sale, but changed mind, now available for rent
Spacious (1650 sq ft) 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath single story detached house."
Hmm... I wonder why?
One guess would be after all the remodeling (lipstick on the pig) it is still not selling. But again that remains my pessimistic thinking. :P
"Completely remodeled for sale, but changed mind, now available for rent
Spacious (1650 sq ft) 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath single story detached house."
Hmm... I wonder why?
One guess would be after all the remodeling (lipstick on the pig) it is still not selling. But again that remains my pessimistic thinking. :P
Monday, May 21, 2007
A Number Of Notable Reductions (For One Reason Or Another) at SocketSite™
Even though this might just be a blip in the overall market direction, but it is still quite nice to see some reversal to sanity.
A Number Of Notable Reductions (For One Reason Or Another) at SocketSite™:
745 Detroit: Master Bath (Image Source:residentphotography.com)
After just over a month on the market, three recent reductions caught our attention (for one reason or another):
1. 745 Detroit was reduced $105,000 (6.2%)
2. 3840 Market Street #301 was reduced $200,000 (12.1%), and
3. 20 Villa Terrace was reduced $780,010 (31.2%)
The reasons? The great (and sometimes not so great) neighborhood debate, an agent owner, and just one honkin big reduction. Yes, in that order.
∙ Listing: 745 Detroit (3/2.5) - $1,595,000 [Sotheby’s]
∙ Listing: 3840 Market Street #301 (3/2.5) - $1,450,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 20 Villa Terrace (4/3.5) - $1,719,990 [MLS]
∙ Not Just Cool But “Uber Cool” In Sunnyside [SocketSite]"
A Number Of Notable Reductions (For One Reason Or Another) at SocketSite™:
745 Detroit: Master Bath (Image Source:residentphotography.com)
After just over a month on the market, three recent reductions caught our attention (for one reason or another):
1. 745 Detroit was reduced $105,000 (6.2%)
2. 3840 Market Street #301 was reduced $200,000 (12.1%), and
3. 20 Villa Terrace was reduced $780,010 (31.2%)
The reasons? The great (and sometimes not so great) neighborhood debate, an agent owner, and just one honkin big reduction. Yes, in that order.
∙ Listing: 745 Detroit (3/2.5) - $1,595,000 [Sotheby’s]
∙ Listing: 3840 Market Street #301 (3/2.5) - $1,450,000 [MLS]
∙ Listing: 20 Villa Terrace (4/3.5) - $1,719,990 [MLS]
∙ Not Just Cool But “Uber Cool” In Sunnyside [SocketSite]"
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Poor Investment
Just assuming $1,000 for each of the two 1/1, this property takes in a gross income of $24,000, which is only 4% and that is before all the property taxes and maintenance.
I just cannot understand how this can be a good investment.
REDUCED PRICE: Downtown SJ Duplex for SALE!!! OPEN HOUSE THIS WEEKEND SATURDAY 10AM-1PM.
Great Starter Duplex with room to expand!!!: Two 1Bedroom/1Bathroom units. 1,248 sq ft living are, 3,049 sq ft lot. Very well maintained and easy to rent. MOTIVATED SELLERS, This is a Short Sale Subject to Bank Approval.
Unit #1: Granite Counter-tops and Cherry wood cabinets, new kitchen appliances, new pergo flooring, recessed lighting throughout and much more!
Unit #2: Tile Floors throughout.
Laundry Facility, parking.
Close to SJSU and Downtown SJ.
Currently rented out, DO NOT DISTURB THE TENANTS.
N. 10th St at Saint John St.
I just cannot understand how this can be a good investment.
$590000 REDUCED PRICE San Jose DUPLEX (san jose downtown)
REDUCED PRICE: Downtown SJ Duplex for SALE!!! OPEN HOUSE THIS WEEKEND SATURDAY 10AM-1PM.
Great Starter Duplex with room to expand!!!: Two 1Bedroom/1Bathroom units. 1,248 sq ft living are, 3,049 sq ft lot. Very well maintained and easy to rent. MOTIVATED SELLERS, This is a Short Sale Subject to Bank Approval.
Unit #1: Granite Counter-tops and Cherry wood cabinets, new kitchen appliances, new pergo flooring, recessed lighting throughout and much more!
Unit #2: Tile Floors throughout.
Laundry Facility, parking.
Close to SJSU and Downtown SJ.
Currently rented out, DO NOT DISTURB THE TENANTS.
N. 10th St at Saint John St.
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