=BubbleTrack= Your Best Source For The Least Housing Bubble Bull
Funny!
Saturday, April 08, 2006
A BULL, A BEAR AND THE BUBBLE / What's ahead for the real estate market? Two respected analysts -- and now authors -- hold markedly different views
A BULL, A BEAR AND THE BUBBLE / What's ahead for the real estate market? Two respected analysts -- and now authors -- hold markedly different views:
"Because of the above factors, Talbott predicts a wave of loan defaults and foreclosures. Bank presidents will be fired for making so many risky loans. The new presidents, wanting to clean up the mess, will unload the properties at a loss, perhaps for 40 to 60 cents on the dollar. This will flood the market and deflate home prices further."
"Because of the above factors, Talbott predicts a wave of loan defaults and foreclosures. Bank presidents will be fired for making so many risky loans. The new presidents, wanting to clean up the mess, will unload the properties at a loss, perhaps for 40 to 60 cents on the dollar. This will flood the market and deflate home prices further."
Friday, March 31, 2006
Ben Stein, on the money - ours as well as his
Ben Stein, on the money - ours as well as his:
"QBen Bernanke took the helm as Fed chairman Tuesday and raised interest rates a quarter of a point. How do you think he'll fare as fed chief and what kind of actions do you think he'll take in the coming year?
A Any time there's inflation, raise interest rates aggressively until the demon goes back into his cage. I think he will succeed. But we have such a strong economy and such a labor shortage that it may take more increases than people are predicting.
QWhat are your economic predictions for 2006?
AI think the housing market will continue to decline. We're coming off the biggest housing boom in 15 years. I think we're way overbuilt and overpriced. Everything is ripe for a fall. There's already been a substantial decline in many parts of the country and a dramatic rise in inventory, including in South Florida.
QWill it be like a bubble bursting? Or a slow deflation?
AThe signs are there for a prolonged slowdown. Whether they'll be a bursting like in the early 1990s, that's hard to say. That was interest rates accompanied by a severe recession. This time around I don't see recession in the cards. The fact is, there will be a correction; at this point you can't avoid it."
"QBen Bernanke took the helm as Fed chairman Tuesday and raised interest rates a quarter of a point. How do you think he'll fare as fed chief and what kind of actions do you think he'll take in the coming year?
A Any time there's inflation, raise interest rates aggressively until the demon goes back into his cage. I think he will succeed. But we have such a strong economy and such a labor shortage that it may take more increases than people are predicting.
QWhat are your economic predictions for 2006?
AI think the housing market will continue to decline. We're coming off the biggest housing boom in 15 years. I think we're way overbuilt and overpriced. Everything is ripe for a fall. There's already been a substantial decline in many parts of the country and a dramatic rise in inventory, including in South Florida.
QWill it be like a bubble bursting? Or a slow deflation?
AThe signs are there for a prolonged slowdown. Whether they'll be a bursting like in the early 1990s, that's hard to say. That was interest rates accompanied by a severe recession. This time around I don't see recession in the cards. The fact is, there will be a correction; at this point you can't avoid it."
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
Sold over asking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! < --- > 03/30 22:35:59
These have closed recently in San Francisco...
17.12% over asking - 42 Cole, sold for $725,000
12.82% over asking - 747 Lyon, sold for $2,200,000
17.66% over asking - 307-309A Duncan, sold for $1,706,000
0.67% over asking - 2577-2579 Pose, sold for $1,500,000
4.22% over asking - 1839 Laguna, sold for $3,335,000
11.63% over asking - 29-31 Hattie, sold for $1,200,000
1.00% over asking - 1730 Broderick, #11, sold for $403,000
4.07% over asking - 4216 Balboa, sold for $1,560,000
11.01% over asking - 627-631 Lyon, sold for $1,886,000
5.21% over asking - 1039-1041 Cabrillo, sold for $1,050,000
21.29% over asking - 1378 Hayes, sold for $940,000
8.46% over asking - 1770 Fell, #4, sold for $910,000
5.81% over asking - 1980 Sutter, #317, sold for $820,000
10.76% over asking - 1730 Fell, sold for $885,000
22.39% over asking - 1073-1075 14th St, sold for $1,585,000
6.24% over asking - 1548 Leavenworth, sold for $1,328,000
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
Wow, 1730 #11 Broderick for 403K!?! < TheEconomist > 03/30 23:06:24
Exact same size condo, on a lower floor (#3) sold for 511K almost a year ago. That's down 20% for a lower floor. The very same condo sold for 325K in 2003. If they did a kitchen and bath remodel, that shot all of their "gain". They would have been better off renting, because they paid more to own. The realtor commission was probably $20K, so even if they did nothing at all to the place, they made a whopping $58K, minus their closing costs (points on the loan, etc.). The property tax and homeowners fee they paid was probably half of the 58K and the closing costs probably 1 quarter of what was left.
I hope everyone gets my point here. % over asking is meaningless because the asking price is pulled out of the air. The only meaningful statistic is the % UNDER the prior comps. The trend is distubingly down. #3 sold for more money last year. #11 really made nothing at all.
http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.z?addrstrthood=1730%20Broderick%20St&citystatezip=San%20Francisco%2C%20CA%2094115&mode=units
I suspect a similar analysis on the other ones will yield similar results: the trend is down and most of the talk of real estate being some sort of cash machine is largely just realtors pumping up the possibilities. Most of the time that I do an analysis like this, I find the homeowner didn't make much at all, and the comps were higher last year.
In the end: the realtor and mortgage banker made more money than the homeowner, and someone who bought last year is underwater already.
http://forums.craigslist.org/?ID=410545
Sold over asking!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! < --- > 03/30 22:35:59
These have closed recently in San Francisco...
17.12% over asking - 42 Cole, sold for $725,000
12.82% over asking - 747 Lyon, sold for $2,200,000
17.66% over asking - 307-309A Duncan, sold for $1,706,000
0.67% over asking - 2577-2579 Pose, sold for $1,500,000
4.22% over asking - 1839 Laguna, sold for $3,335,000
11.63% over asking - 29-31 Hattie, sold for $1,200,000
1.00% over asking - 1730 Broderick, #11, sold for $403,000
4.07% over asking - 4216 Balboa, sold for $1,560,000
11.01% over asking - 627-631 Lyon, sold for $1,886,000
5.21% over asking - 1039-1041 Cabrillo, sold for $1,050,000
21.29% over asking - 1378 Hayes, sold for $940,000
8.46% over asking - 1770 Fell, #4, sold for $910,000
5.81% over asking - 1980 Sutter, #317, sold for $820,000
10.76% over asking - 1730 Fell, sold for $885,000
22.39% over asking - 1073-1075 14th St, sold for $1,585,000
6.24% over asking - 1548 Leavenworth, sold for $1,328,000
s.f. bayarea forums - craigslist
Wow, 1730 #11 Broderick for 403K!?! < TheEconomist > 03/30 23:06:24
Exact same size condo, on a lower floor (#3) sold for 511K almost a year ago. That's down 20% for a lower floor. The very same condo sold for 325K in 2003. If they did a kitchen and bath remodel, that shot all of their "gain". They would have been better off renting, because they paid more to own. The realtor commission was probably $20K, so even if they did nothing at all to the place, they made a whopping $58K, minus their closing costs (points on the loan, etc.). The property tax and homeowners fee they paid was probably half of the 58K and the closing costs probably 1 quarter of what was left.
I hope everyone gets my point here. % over asking is meaningless because the asking price is pulled out of the air. The only meaningful statistic is the % UNDER the prior comps. The trend is distubingly down. #3 sold for more money last year. #11 really made nothing at all.
http://www.zillow.com/search/Search.z?addrstrthood=1730%20Broderick%20St&citystatezip=San%20Francisco%2C%20CA%2094115&mode=units
I suspect a similar analysis on the other ones will yield similar results: the trend is down and most of the talk of real estate being some sort of cash machine is largely just realtors pumping up the possibilities. Most of the time that I do an analysis like this, I find the homeowner didn't make much at all, and the comps were higher last year.
In the end: the realtor and mortgage banker made more money than the homeowner, and someone who bought last year is underwater already.
http://forums.craigslist.org/?ID=410545
Friday, March 24, 2006
Monday, March 06, 2006
patrick.net » Blog Archive » Favorite Realt-whore Cliches
patrick.net » Blog Archive » Favorite Realt-whore Cliches: "spazzer Says:
March 5th, 2006 at 5:44 pm
I love this one… GO GO GO!
Here’s a house that I used to drive by on my way home from work occasionally:
http://www.ehomes-usa.com/homes1/asp/listing2_om.asp?KEY=40103418&realtor=dwelzien&link=
Check out the status: SOLD!
Here’s some crappy cellphone pix I took on 9/27/05:
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores.jpg
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores2.jpg
Long story short, saw a price reduction to $649k then off the market, until I saw this last week:
http://tinyurl.com/s5rgs
Interesting, I thought it was sold!"
March 5th, 2006 at 5:44 pm
I love this one… GO GO GO!
Here’s a house that I used to drive by on my way home from work occasionally:
http://www.ehomes-usa.com/homes1/asp/listing2_om.asp?KEY=40103418&realtor=dwelzien&link=
Check out the status: SOLD!
Here’s some crappy cellphone pix I took on 9/27/05:
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores.jpg
http://home.comcast.net/~spazzer/517dolores2.jpg
Long story short, saw a price reduction to $649k then off the market, until I saw this last week:
http://tinyurl.com/s5rgs
Interesting, I thought it was sold!"
Saturday, October 15, 2005
30-year mortgage rates rise above 6%
I am not planning to buy a house but if I were, I would consider buying it soon.
Even though the housing market is still too hot, the long-term mortgage rate is still at a multi-decade low. So for homeowners instead of speculators, it's still a good time to lock in for loan.
30-year mortgage rates rise above 6% - The Boston Globe
Even though the housing market is still too hot, the long-term mortgage rate is still at a multi-decade low. So for homeowners instead of speculators, it's still a good time to lock in for loan.
30-year mortgage rates rise above 6% - The Boston Globe
Friday, October 07, 2005
Long Term Rates on Rise
The current 6-month high set for the 30-year mortgage rate is no surprise to me
USATODAY.com - 30-year mortgage rate highest since April
In fact, I have been short on this ETF iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) for quite some time. And I suspect we are seeing just the beginning of a profound trend of rising long-term rates. A couple of good indicators include
USATODAY.com - 30-year mortgage rate highest since April
In fact, I have been short on this ETF iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) for quite some time. And I suspect we are seeing just the beginning of a profound trend of rising long-term rates. A couple of good indicators include
- Fed has reintroduced the 30-year treasuries
- Long term financial committment required for recontructions from the natural disasters like Katrina. Besides the 34 billions of bonds issued since 1995 needs bailout, $60 billion in new debt also lacks government guarantee.
- Needs for improvements on other infrastructures
Thursday, October 06, 2005
Bill Gross
Bill Gross in his PIMCO Bonds - IO October 2005: "Investment Outlook" describe the downturn in housing market to be "99% inevitable"
Let me state categorically that the above sequence is barely questionable, almost inevitable, 99% unavoidable, and in modern parlance - “slam-dunk.” In so saying, I hope I am not being unkind to those of you who think otherwise - I’m trying to do you a favor!
Let me state categorically that the above sequence is barely questionable, almost inevitable, 99% unavoidable, and in modern parlance - “slam-dunk.” In so saying, I hope I am not being unkind to those of you who think otherwise - I’m trying to do you a favor!
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
First Crack in Bubble?
First Crack in the Housing Bubble ... And Everyone Missed It
The median price of a home fell in July by a whopping 7.2%
I confirmed these figures from economagic.com and here is a 5 year chart generated from the same data.
There is a widely published number of $218,000, which is supposed to be the July median sale price of existing homes, and more importantly, that's a new record high and an increase from last year.
Do not know why the two sets of numbers are so different.
The median price of a home fell in July by a whopping 7.2%
I confirmed these figures from economagic.com and here is a 5 year chart generated from the same data.
There is a widely published number of $218,000, which is supposed to be the July median sale price of existing homes, and more importantly, that's a new record high and an increase from last year.
Do not know why the two sets of numbers are so different.
Housing Prices Slowing
New York Times is running a story on slowing housing prices
Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets
In Manhattan, the average sales price fell almost 13 percent.... The amount of time it took to sell a home was also up 30.4 percent over the same period.
For-sale listings have also swelled throughout California, according to the California Association of Realtors. In the San Francisco Bay area, they have increased 16 percent in the last year, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage said.
Real Estate in Bubble Trouble
Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets
In Manhattan, the average sales price fell almost 13 percent.... The amount of time it took to sell a home was also up 30.4 percent over the same period.
For-sale listings have also swelled throughout California, according to the California Association of Realtors. In the San Francisco Bay area, they have increased 16 percent in the last year, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage said.
Real Estate in Bubble Trouble
In the Prudential Douglas Elliman report, which covers sales of all firms in New York City, the average price of a Manhattan apartment — including co-ops and condos — dropped 12.7 percent from $1.32 million in the second quarter to $1.15 million.
In the luxury apartment market — defined as the top 10 percent of transaction prices — the number plunged 26 percent from $5.2 million to $3.8 million in the three-month period.
Monday, October 03, 2005
How to Make Newborns Cry
For all of those who do not have a trust fund to inherit. This is how they make newborns cry these days
Kiyosaki Ponders Inevitable Bust
Author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad", Robert Kiyosaki, thinks the bust in the current housing market is inevitable.
In his article, All Booms Bust: Making Myself Clear, he says
"Do I still expect a bust? The answer is "yes." In fact I am hoping for one so I can buy more real estate. "
His advice to other real-estate investors is
"Please don’t get caught in a flip that flops or use your house as an ATM machine, borrowing out the new found and inflated equity in your property."
In his article, All Booms Bust: Making Myself Clear, he says
"Do I still expect a bust? The answer is "yes." In fact I am hoping for one so I can buy more real estate. "
His advice to other real-estate investors is
"Please don’t get caught in a flip that flops or use your house as an ATM machine, borrowing out the new found and inflated equity in your property."
Bankruptcy Rush
These are the news on the bankruptcy rush happening around the nation
BostonHerald.com - Business News: Bankruptcy rush blamed on change in law
"The number of people filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Massachusetts during the three-month period ending June 30 jumped dramatically to 5,256, up 25.3 percent from the same period last year, according to data released yesterday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts."
The Arizona Republic - State residents rush to file Chapter 7 before tougher law
Filings for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, which allows consumers and businesses to liquidate most debts, climbed 39.2 percent in August compared with filings in August 2004, according to data from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court District of Arizona.
ToledoBlade.com (Ohio) - Bankruptcy filings 2nd-highest ever
The 1,314 filings in August, up 48 percent from the same month a year ago, bring the year-to-date total to 9,011, enough to rank as the third highest year ever, with four months to go.
BostonHerald.com - Business News: Bankruptcy rush blamed on change in law
"The number of people filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Massachusetts during the three-month period ending June 30 jumped dramatically to 5,256, up 25.3 percent from the same period last year, according to data released yesterday by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts."
The Arizona Republic - State residents rush to file Chapter 7 before tougher law
Filings for Chapter 7 bankruptcy protection, which allows consumers and businesses to liquidate most debts, climbed 39.2 percent in August compared with filings in August 2004, according to data from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court District of Arizona.
ToledoBlade.com (Ohio) - Bankruptcy filings 2nd-highest ever
The 1,314 filings in August, up 48 percent from the same month a year ago, bring the year-to-date total to 9,011, enough to rank as the third highest year ever, with four months to go.
Invest in Real Estate
You can now be an investor in real estate with no money. How ingenious!!
InvestRealEstate.com Rolls Out Zero-Down Investor Loans
"Along with zero-down mortgages on second homes and investment properties, investors whose credit scores are high enough can qualify for loans with no income, asset or job verification. Charter Funding also offers 1.325% Super Cash Flow loans to investors who desire the lowest possible monthly payment."
InvestRealEstate.com Rolls Out Zero-Down Investor Loans
"Along with zero-down mortgages on second homes and investment properties, investors whose credit scores are high enough can qualify for loans with no income, asset or job verification. Charter Funding also offers 1.325% Super Cash Flow loans to investors who desire the lowest possible monthly payment."
God Provides Zero-Down Loans
Columbus Dispatch is running a story
Loophole fuels zero-down mortgages
"Homebuilders across the country, including Dominion Homes, have found a way around a federal law barring sellers from giving money directly to buyers for a down payment.
Loophole fuels zero-down mortgages
"Homebuilders across the country, including Dominion Homes, have found a way around a federal law barring sellers from giving money directly to buyers for a down payment.
They route the money through charities such as the Nehemiah Corp. of America, a faith-based group in California."
"In 2002, HUD updated an earlier study of 2,261 Nehemiah-assisted mortgages in Indianapolis, Las Vegas, and Sacramento and Stockton, Calif. Researchers documented a 19.4 percent default rate among those loans.
Customers who bought a house without Nehemiah’s help had a default rate of half that level."
Thursday, September 15, 2005
San Diego Slowing Down!!
“S.D. blazes new trail in housing slowdown”
signonsandiego.com: http://tinyurl.com/afg6n
signonsandiego.com: http://tinyurl.com/afg6n
“S.D. blazes new trail in housing slowdown”
signonsandiego.com: http://tinyurl.com/afg6n
The market is giving Teresa Generas the jitters, causing her to pray for somebody to buy her 1931 Mission Revival bungalow, which has been on the market more than six months.
“It’s getting a little bit scary right now,” she said. “I’m not a person of means. I’m a retired nurse and a widow and I don’t have millions to call upon.”
Generas, 64, moved to a condo in Tierrasanta last spring and put a $1.1 million asking price on her 1,879-square-foot, three-bedroom home in Kensington. Since then, it’s been in and out of escrow three times and is listed at $950,000 to $975,000. Her son Tony is house-sitting and helping cover her two mortgage payments, which total $6,000 a month. But she’s not ready to accept lowball offers.
“I just refuse to believe that there’s been that much of a dip,” she said.
Lowering the price more doesn’t interest her. “I think people who can afford this house wouldn’t care that much anyway,” she said.
…Karen Peterson, last year’s president of the realty association, said sellers shouldn’t panic and buyers should not hesitate if they find what they want. “I think we’re still adjusting,” Peterson said. “Last year was such a hot market.”
She said that in a few cases buyers are outbidding each other. Areas where prices are down saw rapid increases earlier. But the big bugaboo remains the anticipation that the proverbial real estate “bubble” will burst.
“People think prices are going to go down and the statistics keep telling us they’re not,” Peterson said. “They need to buy. We have an excellent inventory, excellent interest rates. What are they waiting for?”
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Saudis to retrieve $360 billion abroad
You would have heard the news by now. $360 billion is roughly half of the forex reserve of China. The real question if why the Saudis are doing this and what impact it will have on global economy.
Saudis to retrieve $360 billion abroad:- - World News - Webindia123.com
Saudis to retrieve $360 billion abroad:- - World News - Webindia123.com
Monday, August 08, 2005
San Diego slowing down?
Paul Krugman: Living in a bubble - Editorials & Commentary - International Herald Tribune: "after a rise in house prices that dwarfs the boom of the 1980s. The number of single-family houses and condos on the market has doubled over the past year. 'Homes that a year or two ago sold virtually overnight - in many cases triggering bidding wars - are on the market for weeks,' reports The Los Angeles Times."
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