Friday, October 07, 2005

Long Term Rates on Rise

The current 6-month high set for the 30-year mortgage rate is no surprise to me
USATODAY.com - 30-year mortgage rate highest since April
In fact, I have been short on this ETF iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) for quite some time. And I suspect we are seeing just the beginning of a profound trend of rising long-term rates. A couple of good indicators include
  • Fed has reintroduced the 30-year treasuries
  • Long term financial committment required for recontructions from the natural disasters like Katrina. Besides the 34 billions of bonds issued since 1995 needs bailout, $60 billion in new debt also lacks government guarantee.
  • Needs for improvements on other infrastructures

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